The Passenger Transport Survey, this Mass Transport Study and the Long Term Road Study together form a comprehensive transportation study for Hong Kong. To fulfill its greatest potential, such a study should be kept continuously updated. This can be accomplished with a periodic review of travel patterns, population, employment and other parameters. This process of review should be on a scheduled basis and whenever significant changes in trends are found, the recommendations and plans should be modified accordingly. An example would be to amend the time schedule for construction of the Sha Tin rapid-transit line, if Sha Tin grows faster or more slowly than the present population estimates indicate.
Although a comprehensive transportation study can, for a time, be kept up-to-date by continuous checking and review, it will eventually become obsolete due to the accumulation of changes in development patterns, and because relationships that must be forecast at one time can be accurately measured later. Therefore, it is recommended that the complete study be repeated in essence about 10 years hence. By that time the first stage of the rapid-transit system should be in operation; the Cross-harbour and Lion Rock Tunnels should both have been open to traffic for some years and many other road improvements should be completed; Tsuen Wan should be reaching its full development and the Castle Peak and Sha Tin New Towns well under way; sizeable increases in population should have also occurred in Aberdeen, Chai Wan, Ho Man Tin, Kwun Tong and Ma Yau Tong.
A great amount of time and effort was expended in the present study establishing fundamental procedures, methods, relationships, control totals and points of reference. These need only be checked for validity in the future. Also, if the present study is continuously kept up-to-date, much of the basic data will be available for use in a future study. It will thus be possible to execute the next comprehensive study with less effort and expense. One exception will be that complete origin and destination surveys should be conducted in the New Territories. The travel survey phase of the present study did not include these, as there was insufficient development to produce reliable results for a reasonable survey cost. The anticipated growth of population and employment will make this work worthwhile in the future.
EXTENSIONS TO THE RAPID-TRANSIT SYSTEM
Several rapid-transit lines, beyond those included in the recommended system, were tested in- System 3 with traffic assignments. Three of these attracted enough traffic to warrant further consideration, namely a line joining North Point and Kwun Tong, a line joining the Central District and Aberdeen and a line joining Tsuen Wan and Castle Peak.
North Point to Kwun Tong Line — The assignments revealed that by the design year, there could be as many as 400,000 trips per day on a rapid-transit line between North Point and Kwun Tong. Many of these trips have been induced by better public transport connections but most of them are trips that were routed via Kowloon and Wan Chai in other networks. If, in the future, the volumes through Kowloon on the Kwun Tong and Sha Tin Lines begin to exceed the capacity, consideration should be given to the construction of this additional line. The Island Line has been designed so that half of the service terminates at North Point and the other half continues on to Chai Wan. The trains that terminate at North Point could turn north on the new line and operate to Kwun Tong. This may tend to overload the Island Line through North Point and Wan Chai but, with alternative routes available, the passenger loads should distribute themselves over all lines. The risk of overloading is however another example of the kind of thing that should be rechecked in a future study, before a decision is taken.
Central District to Aberdeen Line — Systems 1, 2 and 2A were designed to provide a public transport connection to Aberdeen with buses in a road tunnel under Middle Gap but, in System 3, a rapid-transit line was included between Admiralty Station and Aberdeen. This line attracted approximately 300,000 trips per day in the design year. Since many of these trips were induced by the better service, this line was not recommended, but consideration could be given to its construction if traffic congestion begins to occur on the roads between the north and south sides of the Island. Admiralty Station has been designed in such a way that either the whole of the Tsuen Wan Line service, or half of it, can be extended to Aberdeen.
Tsuen Wan to Castle Peak Line — A line joining these two new towns was also included in System 3. It was designed as a continuation of the Tsuen Wan Line and was routed by way of the Yuen Long Valley. The design-year traffic assignments resulted in approximately 300,000 trips per day between Tsuen Wan and Yuen Long and a little less than 200,000 between Yuen Long and Castle Peak. This line was not recommended since assignments to the other systems show that the design-year traffic volumes can be accommodated with express buses on the proposed Castle Peak Road (250 buses during the peak hour in the direction of heaviest flow). However, the population projections for Castle Peak indicate that it will continue to grow beyond the design year, so it is probable that a rapid-transit line will be needed at a later date.
Although it would be possible to extend the Tsuen Wan Line to Castle Peak, the estimated traffic volumes indicate that this would cause the line to be overloaded through Lai Chi Kok and Sham Shui Po and possibly in the Nathan Road corridor. Moreover, the type of rolling stock, with very limited seating and high standing capacity required for urban service, is inappropriate for the relatively long journey to and from Castle Peak. Therefore, consideration should be given to the possibility of constructing a line from Castle Peak to the urban area by way of Tai Po and Sha Tin. This would not provide such a direct service between Castle Peak and the urban area, but it would probably be cheaper, result in better service within the New Territories and provide an opportunity to route goods from the Kowloon-Canton Railway to Castle Peak.
NEW TOWN INTERNAL CIRCULATION PLANS
No detailed investigations of travel in the new towns have been made. However, the area-wide travel projections do provide some information upon which gross estimates of travel needs can be made. Table 92 shows the estimates of internal trips and trips originating and ending in each New Town.
Archive:Hong Kong Mass Transport Study/Table 92
This gives some indication of the number of public transport trips for which provision will need to be made on internal transport networks in the design year. Some of the internal to external trips will, however, have direct access to through services and will not need to be provided for on the internal routes.
To put these numbers into perspective, the number of trips forecast for Tsuen Wan is nearly as great as the present total public transport trips in Kowloon (1,560,000) and exceeds the present number on the Island (1,010,000). The Sha Tin and Castle Peak trips each exceed the present number of trips on the Hong Kong Tramways (500,000) and on the China Motor buses (510,000).
Tsuen Wan — Some of the internal circulation in Tsuen Wan can be accommodated by travel between the five stations on the recommended rapid-transit line, but the physical shape of the area to be served, combined with the large amount of proposed development on hillsides, limits the possibility of any one line being able to do the job.
File:MTS Fig79.pngFigure 79 — Generalised Tsuen Wan Area Land-use PlanFigure 79 is a generalised land-use plan for the Tsuen Wan area including Tsing Yi Island. It shows the residential, industrial and commercial/Government/institutional areas. Areas within a quarter mile of proposed rapid-transit stations have been shaded to indicate the portion of the development considered to be within walking distance of rapid transit. Although local bus routes radiating from the rapid-transit stations could serve the remainder of the area, it is doubtful if they would be adequate on full development.
Consideration should be given to an additional grade-separated facility to serve the large industrial and residential areas not accommodated by rapid transit. An elevated busway of the type currently in test operation in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, or possibly a monorail, might serve this need. Another possibility would be a tramway operating partly at grade in an exclusive right of way and partly on elevated structure. If construction could be coordinated with the development of the rapid-transit line on Hong Kong Island, then some of the existing tram equipment could be used in Tsuen Wan when the need for it diminishes on the Island. A single route serving the industrial areas in the northwest, the residential areas in the north and east and the industrial area on the east side of Tsing Yi Island should attract sufficient traffic to enable the remainder to be adequately handled by buses. Such a line should connect with either the Tsuen Wan or the Kwai Chung rapid-transit station, or both.
File:MTS Fig80.pngFigure 80 — Generalised Sha Tin Area Land-use PlanSha Tin — This new town, like Tsuen Wan, is served by five rapid-transit stations on the recommended system. Its geographic shape makes service by one line more feasible but the presence of a large water channel and the location of large open spaces, limits the extent of development that can be served directly by each station. Generally, the major traffic flow will be on the northeast-southwest axis of the community which is the general alignment of the rapid-transit line as shown in Figure 80.
A detailed analysis of travel desires may show the need for an additional grade separated public transport line to serve the developments in the southwest and the northeast. Such a line could connect with the rapid-transit line at the Shan Ha Wai Station. It, too, might be designed as an elevated busway, a monorail or a tramline on an exclusive right of way.
File:MTS Fig81.pngFigure 81 — Generalised Castle Peak Area Land-use PlanCastle Peak — No rapid-transit line has been designed for this New Town. However, the distribution of development, shown in Figure 81, indicates that an "S" shaped rapid-transit line with five stations, would serve a large proportion of the internal travel. Local buses circulating throughout the area and possibly a tramline on the eastern railway reserve, may then be adequate to serve the remainder of local travel needs.
IN RETROSPECT
The completion of this study is the first positive step in the long term planning and development of mass transport for the Colony. Plans of the type presented herein should not be considered final. They must be constantly reviewed, modified and extended to fit changing conditions. Whilst such changes will normally not be expected to impair the broad objectives of the plan, the procedures used lend themselves to continuous updating, and information has been presented that will enable the effects of changing developments to be perceived and assessed.
Long-range projections in a growing community such as Hong Kong are prone to many uncertainties. The recommended plans are based on the best estimates that can now be made and any substantial changes may dictate the need for re-study of some conclusions and recommendations. In most cases, departures from projected growth trends will not call for major changes in the plans, although they may require adjustments in the priorities and schedules. The recommendations have been developed with flexibility in mind. They can and should be expanded or contracted as modifications dictate changes in basic assumptions.
Obviously, growth will not end abruptly in the design year. At that time need for expanding traffic services should be as great as at present. The various rapid-transit systems of the world, some of which were constructed in the last century, are being improved and expanded continuously. There is no reason to believe that conditions will be any different in Hong Kong.
Now that the first step in the transportation planning process will, with the submission of the Long Term Road Study Report, soon be completed, attention should be directed to detailed transport planning in redevelopment areas and new towns. Much remains to be done in the fields of road plans, transit routing, terminal facilities and parking.
