Archive:Hong Kong Mass Transport Study/Chapter 6

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Chapter 5 — Travel Characteristics and Projections

Hong Kong Mass Transport Study, Chapter 6 Recommended System

Chapter 7 — Stage Development and the Effects of Implementation

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RECOMMENDED SYSTEM

1. As the Colony grows and develops, there will be an increasing need for more roads and better public transport facilities. This is already evident in various areas; some streets are congested and many bus and tram services are in maximum use. Improving the roads and extending these services cannot be considered more than temporary measures. Such improvements will not solve the long-range traffic problem.
2. To study the problem thoroughly, four conceptual public transport systems were devised and tested against the design-year travel forecasts. System 1 comprised only bus, tram and ferry routes and was designed to test whether expansion of the present system could handle future travel needs. System 3 included extensive rapid-transit coverage and the other two systems lay between these extremes. The general size and character of the recommended system evolved from the results of assigning the anticipated future traffic to each of the four test systems. Many refinements were made during route location, design and operational investigations.

ANALYSIS OF TRAFFIC REQUIREMENTS

3. The recommended system must be able to attract a high proportion of the total travel demand and to carry the traffic it attracts. This is necessary both to support the cost of the system and to avoid the congestion caused by large numbers of journeys being made by private cars and taxis. It is particularly important in Hong Kong where there is insufficient space for a high proportion of travel by private vehicles, even if full use is made of modern concepts of vertical separation, use of air rights and overall urban development potentials.
4. Proportion of Travel by Public Transport — The volume of total travel by all modes was projected to the design year, as described in the previous chapter. It was estimated that under each of the systems tested the following percentages of trips would use public transport:

SYSTEM	PER CENT TRAVEL BY PUBLIC TRANSPORT
1	59.1
2	67.0
2A	67.0
3	72.5

At present about 75 per cent of all trips are made by public transport, so all these systems reflect a higher level of private vehicle travel in the design year. A person travelling in a private car requires much more road space than a public transport passenger. This means that the public transport passenger-carrying capacity of the streets and the average speed of movement will be reduced because the buses and trams will have to compete with more cars for limited road space. Thus surface transport will be less able to meet demands than it is today.

5. A balance in transport services must be sought in planning the future system. While an extensive rail rapid-transit system may attract a large number of patrons, the cost could be prohibitive. However failure to establish an adequate public transport service could result in such dependence upon private cars that the consequent cost of providing road and parking facilities might be far higher than that of improving the public transport system.
6. Rapid-Transit Capacity — The practical capacity of a single rail rapid-transit track is between 40,000 and 45,000 passengers per hour. Higher volumes are reached under crowded conditions and for brief periods of time. At present the proportion of travel in the peak hour in Hong Kong is 10 per cent or less on most forms of travel and at most locations. It has been assumed however, that social changes such as shorter and more uniform working hours will cause this proportion to rise to about 12 per cent by 1986. Mixed land use conditions result in a fairly even distribution of travel by direction in the peak hour. Since these conditions will also prevail in the design year, it has been assumed that 60 per cent of the peak hour travel will be in the direction of heavier flow. Based on these assumptions, the practical capacity of a rapid-transit line is 600,000 passengers per day. This figure has been used in the analysis of design-year volumes, but slightly higher figures have been considered acceptable on lines on which little increase in traffic is expected after the design year. Any line attracting 200,000 passengers per day in the design year was considered for the recommended system.
7. With the above considerations in mind, the volumes on the segments of each conceptual system were analysed in order to determine the characteristics of the actual system to be recommended.

8. System 1 — As this is primarily a bus and tram system, it was necessary to compare the public transport volumes on each street with the street capacity. Surveys were made at various places in the urban area to determine the capacity of streets for carrying public transport passengers under local conditions. High volume points were surveyed on Queen's Road, Nathan Road, and Prince Edward Road north east of the Kowloon City roundabout. Although the widths of these streets vary, they are basically four lanes wide at the survey points. The peak-hour one-way volumes observed are given in Table 58.
9. Taking into account conditions at each of these locations, it can be concluded that the public transport capacity of city streets under Hong Kong conditions is about 7,500 passengers per hour per lane. This is consistent with capacities which have been computed theoretically in other studies, and leads to surface public transport capacities as shown in Table 59.
10. Since the proportion of travel by private transport in System 1 will be considerably higher than it is today, and the resultant road congestion will seriously delay buses and trams, any volume of public transport even approaching these figures must be regarded as "over capacity". In addition, volumes over 300,000 per day would exceed the capacity of any practical arrangement of on-street bus stops since this would result in buses arriving at the stops every 15 seconds or less throughout the peak hour. It would be theoretically possible to accommodate such numbers with multiple-bay stops but in actual practice this frequency could not be sustained for a number of reasons. First, there are bound to be irregularities in the spacing between buses that would result in much higher frequencies at certain times. Since these periods would follow periods of lower frequency, surges of boarding passengers would conflict with alighting passengers and delay the buses at the stops. At the same time other buses would need to pull in to the kerb from various lanes and manoeuvring conflicts would develop. The ultimate result would be that all traffic on the street would come to a complete halt many times in each peak hour.
11. The design-year public transport volumes in System 1 are shown graphically in the previous chapter and some of the more significant are given in Table 60.
12. Although Table 60 contains some of the highest volumes, it does not include all the high volume streets. There is a large number which will have to accommodate more than 300,000 public transport passengers per day, and the volumes on many routes exceed the capacity of a four-lane road. Unless many existing streets are converted to multi-lane, limited access motorways these volumes greatly exceed expected capacities. It can be concluded therefore, that System 1 would not be adequate in 1986 and that some form of grade-separated facility will be needed long before then.

13. System 2 — This system included rapid-transit service in the major corridors along the north shore of the Island and along Nathan Road, with routes extending to Tsuen Wan and to Kwun Tong. It was assumed in the development of this system that the Kowloon-Canton Railway would be converted to rapid-transit operation between Hung Hom and Sha Tin. Generally, this system appeared adequate for design-year conditions, but a closer analysis of the volumes revealed that a large area on the east side of the Kowloon
14. South of its connection with the rapid-transit line in Kowloon Tong, the traffic volume assigned to the Kowloon-Canton Railway is very low. This is due to the small number of potential passengers with direct access to the Yau Ma Tei and Hung Hom Stations. While the volumes between Kowloon Tong and Sha Tin are too high to continue with the present railway operation, they hardly justify conversion to rapid transit. Early in the analysis, it was assumed that the Kowloon-Canton Railway could be double-tracked and all goods movements restricted to late night and early morning hours. However, considering the increasing goods movements and the difficulties in handling deliveries, this plan was abandoned, as it would be necessary to triple-track the railway to accommodate both rapid transit and day time goods movements. The two very different types of operation could not be satisfactorily combined.
15. The general conclusion was that while System 2 might be adequate in the design year, it would have some deficiencies.
16. System 2A — A modified plan developed after preliminary analysis of the initial assignments to Systems 2 and 3 indicated the need for a system midway between the two. To form System 2A, there was added to System 2 a rapid-transit line along the east side of the Kowloon peninsula turning eastward to join the Kwun Tong line. The assignments to this new line confirmed that in System 2 public transport riding was inhibited in this corridor by the lack of rapid-transit service. The Kowloon-Canton Railway attracted slightly more traffic because of its connection with this east Kowloon line at Hung Hom. However, the total volumes on the Kowloon-Canton Railway were still not impressive, and bus volumes through the Lion Rock Tunnel remained high. Bending the east Kowloon line towards Kwun Tong split the traffic between two rapid-transit lines, and consequently there was insufficient volume to justify either.
17. It was concluded that although this system had some weakness, it could be modified to form the recommended system.
18. System 3 — The volumes confirmed that the rapid-transit components of System 3 would be more extensive than required for the design-year traffic forecast. This system included many lines in the centre of Kowloon, attracting insufficient volumes to justify their construction. The line between Kwun Tong and Junk Bay also attracted a relatively low volume. The lines to Aberdeen, Castle Peak and across the harbour between North Point and Kwun Tong attracted relatively high volumes and at first appeared to be justified. However, a comparison of these volumes with those obtained in the other test systems revealed that a significant proportion was due to induced traffic in the zones served. In other words, the existence of direct rapid-transit connections in these zones diverted enough traffic from other lines and other modes of travel to make the rail lines appear to be needed. Although there is little doubt that these volumes would be realised if the lines were built, it was not considered advisable to include them in the recommended system for 1986. The need for these lines should be reviewed at a later date, as they may be required soon after the design year.
19. It was concluded that System 3 would be too extensive to be recommended at this time.

VOLUMES ON RECOMMENDED SYSTEM

20. The recommended system was developed by modifying System 2A, and the traffic volumes shown in Figure 49 were developed by making manual adjustments to the assigned volumes. The basic changes made were to eliminate the Kowloon-Canton Railway from the rapid-transit system and to extend the east Kowloon line to Sha Tin. This reduced the volume on the Kowloon-Canton Railway but increased the total travel by rail for Sha Tin residents. Each line in the recommended system was designed to operate independently and changes were made in some of the station locations.
21. The highest volumes on the recommended system will be along Nathan Road and across the harbour to the Central District, where the Kwun Tong and Tsuen Wan lines converge in the same corridor. The sum of the volumes on the two separate lines in this corridor exceeds the capacity of a single pair of tracks, so four tracks will be required.
22. The volumes on the extreme western end of the Island Line, if considered alone, are too low to justify a rapid-transit line. However, this portion of the line is recommended to provide a complete Island service, and to relieve surface congestion in the Kennedy Town area. It will connect with the ferry services to the outer islands, Castle Peak and Macau, and it is recommended that the terminals for these services be relocated to Kennedy Town.
23. Station Volumes — It has been assumed that both the proportion and directional imbalance of peak hour travel will be greater in the stations than in the trains. Although directional surges of passengers can be expected at individual stations, the effect will be diminished as they take trains in opposite directions and mix with the many other passengers from other stations. Fifteen per cent of the daily travel in the peak hour and 75 per cent in the direction of heavier flow have been assumed. The highest volume of passengers entering and leaving a single station is estimated to be about 450,000 per day using Central Station. To accommodate this volume it will be necessary to have elaborate passenger-handling facilities, including direct connections from the passenger concourse to nearby buildings and to a nearby bus terminal. Many entry ways from the surface will also be required. Other high volume stations will be in Kwun Tong, Tsuen Wan, Western District, Wan Chai and Mong Kok with daily volumes ranging between 170,000 and 290,000.
24. Surface Transport Volumes — The total travel on other public transport services (bus, ferry and train) will be higher than at present but the proportion to each mode will be different and extensive routing changes will have to be made.
25. The demand for cross-harbour ferry services will diminish over the years since the rapid transit and the cross-harbour buses will be much faster and more convenient for most origins and destinations. An exception will be the route between Kwun Tong and the eastern part of the Island, where the much shorter water distance makes the ferry service more attractive. A fast ferry service between Hong Kong Island and Castle Peak appears to be justified and volumes on the outlying island ferries are expected to increase slightly.
26. With the rapid-transit line in operation, the amount of surface public transport traffic along the north shore of the Island will diminish. Since buses will be able to provide the capacity, are more adaptable to routing changes and interfere less with other traffic, they may eventually supersede the trams as the surface carrier in this corridor. However, if this should happen, there may be some use for the tram equipment in the new towns.
27. In the future, there will be an increase in bus passengers and the distribution of trips will change radically. In the urban area, there will generally be lower volumes in the areas served by rapid transit and higher volumes elsewhere. Volumes in the New Territories will increase, both between and within the major population centres. Buses will accommodate short urban trips, while longer journeys will transfer to the faster rapid-transit system. Many bus routes will need to be re-orientated to provide feeder services to the rapid-transit lines. No attempt is made in this report to recommend individual bus routes for the design year. These will evolve over the years as the rapid transit emerges and routes are re-arranged to meet changing demands.
28. Travel on the Kowloon-Canton Railway is expected to increase gradually until development of the new town at Sha Tin gets under way. Travel volumes will then increase rapidly until the rapid-transit line to Sha Tin is constructed. They will then drop back to slightly above present levels. In addition to goods traffic, the railway will continue to carry passengers destined for points north of Sha Tin. Passengers with baggage will probably also continue to use the Kowloon-Canton Railway.

LINES AND STATIONS—RECOMMENDED SYSTEM

29. Figure 50 shows the four lines and the station locations for the recommended rapid-transit system. Names have been assigned to the stations to identify them in further discussion. Wherever possible the station names are those of the community or designated geographic area in which they are located. Each of the four lines has also been named for reference purposes.
30. Minor alterations to the recommended system will no doubt be found to be desirable, especially in the later stages, either for engineering reasons when the detailed design work is undertaken, or for traffic reasons which cannot be foreseen today. These will mainly affect the precise alignment of tracks and the exact location of stations and their entrances and exits. There are, however, several more important variations or alternative routes that should be given further consideration during detailed design. One has to do with the line between Western Market and Kennedy. In the recommended system the Kwun Tong Line terminates at Western Market and the Island Line extends to Kennedy but the alternative of extending the Kwun Tong Line to Kennedy may prove to be the better proposition. The case for extending the Island Line rests primarily on the desirability of maintaining a through service for passengers between points west of Western Market and points east of Central. The traffic forecasts show, however, that the through traffic on the Island Line may be smaller than traffic between the west end of the Island and Kowloon. The number of people requiring to change trains at Western Market, may therefore be larger if the service to Kennedy is provided by the Island Line trains instead of the Kwun Tong Line trains. The construction and operating costs would be virtually the same whichever alternative is adopted. In principle the advantage of the through service should be given to the majority, and the minority required to change. Other such alternatives are discussed at the appropriate places in the following chapters.

31. The total length (route miles) of the four lines is 40 miles and there are 50 stations. While two lines converge in the same general corridor along Nathan Road, across the harbour and in the Central District, none of the four lines use the same pair of tracks; they are operated independently of each other, thus avoiding the com plications and potential disruptions of service which arise from inter-working two or more lines on the same tracks under the heavy load conditions anticipated. Eight of the 50 stations serve two or more lines. The average distance between stations is 0.72 miles as shown in Table 62.
32. Figure 51 shows a comparison of the recommended system with several other rapid-transit systems. These maps have all been drawn to the same scale to illustrate how Hong Kong and its proposed rapid-transit system compares with other cities, some of which have a smaller population than is projected for Hong Kong in the design year.

• Figure 49 — Recommended System Traffic Volumes
  Figure 49 — Recommended System Traffic Volumes
• Figure 50 — Recommended Rapid-transit System
  Figure 50 — Recommended Rapid-transit System
• Figure 51 — Comparison of Rapid-transit Systems in Various Cities
  Figure 51 — Comparison of Rapid-transit Systems in Various Cities

STAGING AND IMPLEMENTATION

33. A stage development plan has been prepared for the rapid-transit system. The first stage includes most of the Kwun Tong line, since this will attract the most traffic in early years. The Sha Tin line is scheduled to be built in the last stages, as it is anticipated that, with planned improvements, the Kowloon-Canton Railway will accommodate this traffic for many years.
34. The construction of a rapid-transit system in densely built up urban areas is slow and difficult work, so the development plan has been designed to start as early as possible to be sure that each segment will be completed when it is needed. A complete discussion of the proposed staging and the work necessary to implement the system is the subject of the next chapter.

ROUTE LOCATION

35. About 80 per cent of the system is located underground, most of it under major streets. Overhead construction has been carefully considered, but it was found that this would involve destroying many expensive buildings. In addition, overhead lines would interfere with many highway facilities such as flyovers, and some of the large complex junctions would be very unsightly. Detailed route location drawings are included and discussed in Chapter 8.

DESIGN AND CONSTRUCTION

36. After thorough consideration of modern construction methods, cut and cover type of construction has been assumed in the design of most of the system. There are also significant lengths of bored tunnel and overhead structure. The use of reinforced and prestressed concrete is assumed for most overhead sections. Provision is made in the estimates for facilities to maintain traffic flow during construction.
37. Each station has been designed to include a mezzanine ticketing area which at most sub-surface stations is located under the street. This provides direct access from both sides of the street and where possible from all four corners of major intersections. Direct access from adjacent buildings and passageways to major travel generators have been included. The design of the stations incorporates escalators, travelators and lifts where passenger volumes, distances or elevation changes justify them.
38. Interchange stations (those serving two or more lines) have been designed for easy, direct transfer movements. Wherever possible, transfers will be made merely by stepping off a train, walking across a platform and entering another train. Where direct cross-platform movement cannot be provided heavy transfers will be accommodated by direct escalators to the next level above or below.
39. The design and construction of the system including its tunnels, structures, stations and other civil engineering works is described in Chapter 9.

OPERATION

File:MTS Fig52.png

Figure 52 — Maintenance Depots

40. The system has been designed to operate with multiple-unit, steel-wheeled electric trains running on steel rail. Eight-car trains can be accommodated at the 600-foot station platforms, and a high degree of automatic control is envisaged to allow two-minute train spacing.
41. On each line, sidings are provided for night time storage of trains. The bulk of these storage sidings, and also inspection sheds for routine maintenance for each line, are provided at the four depots at Kowloon Bay, Kwai Chung, Chai Wan and Sha Tin as shown in Figure 52. In addition, several smaller sidings are provided at other locations to reduce wasteful operation of empty trains at the start and finish of each day.
42. Though the lines operate independently and have independent facilities for routine maintenance, all major rolling stock work will be carried out in the workshops at the Kowloon Bay depot. Inter-line track connections are provided for moving trains to and from these shops.
43. The Kowloon Bay depot will be the operational headquarters of the Rapid-Transit Organisation. It will house the administrative offices and the central control room from which the whole operation of the system will be monitored. In addition, the depot will be the base for track, power supply and signal maintenance. Chapter 10 includes a full discussion of operations and the equipment necessary to work the system.

REVENUE, FINANCING AND ECONOMICS

44. The capital costs of the system are divided into (a) land and right-of-way costs (b) construction costs and (c) equipment and furnishing costs. These are thoroughly discussed in Chapter 8, 9 and 10. Chapter 10 also includes a discussion of annual operating costs. In Chapter 11 they are all summarised and compared with anticipated revenue.