Archive:Hong Kong Mass Transport Study/Summary/zh
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概述
此研究的目的是为香港长期的公共交通问题制定符合规划目标、发展计划和一定程度的流动性的最佳解决方案，以使香港继续繁荣发展。通过对各个规划和运输的调查中收集的资讯进行分析和预测，[我们]确认有[对大众运输的]长期需求，从而定出一个完整的公共交通系统的基本要素，并制定了实行的计划。
香港－过去与现在
香港是一个可以以人口稠密、充满活力、发展迅速来形容的社区。通过其人民的辛勤工作和政府的富有想像力的规划，一座伟大的城市已经从一个地形没有希望的地区雕刻出来。在十九世纪中叶开始时，它只有一项资产——一个好港口。这片土地主要由陡峭的山坡组成，但通过移山填海，创造了可利用的土地。
尽管香港遭受了许多自然、经济和民间的挫折，但她总是以新的活力反弹。自1841年以来，平均人口增长率约为每年三万人，其他大多数增长和活力指标亦同步增长。在过去五年中，每天的平均增幅如下：[1]
| 人口增长 | 300 | 人 |
| 学校收录学生增长 | 130 | 人 |
| 公共交通乘客增长 | 520 | 人 |
| 注册车辆增长 | 21 | 辆 |
| 11 | 辆 | |
| 有牌司机增长 | 42 | 人 |
| 流通量增长 | 452,000 | 港元 |
| 交易量增长 | 12,400 | 港元 |
可展现物理和经济增长的指标是无穷无尽的。香港每天正在变得更大、更繁荣，因此更加依赖充足和可靠的出行方式。
未来香港
本研究的不少部分都在于预测选定年份1986年的各种特征上。在世界各地的其他城市进行的许多类似研究中发现，预测出行的最佳方法是将其与其他城市生活和行为模式（如家庭、就业、家庭收入和汽车拥有量等）联系起来人口。下表展示了一些增长预测。
| 项目 | 1965 | 1986 | RATIO 1986/1965 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 香港整体 | |||
| 人口 | 3,460,200 | 6,868,000 | 1.98 |
| 户数 | 706,200 | 1,450,000 | 2.05 |
| 就业人口 | 1,377,200 | 2,706,000 | 1.96 |
| 每日出行次数 | 4,280,300 | 11,066,000 | 2.59 |
| 每日公共交通使用量 | 3,320,500 | 7,404,000 | 2.23 |
| 市区[a] | |||
| 人口 | 2,808,800 | 3,950,000 | 1.41 |
| 户数 | 546,300 | 828,000 | 1.52 |
| 就业人口 | 1,095,500 | 1,505,000 | 1.37 |
| 低收入住户（每月收入少于$600） | 367,000 | 273,000 | 0.74 |
| 中收入住户（每月收入介于$601至$1,500） | 139,300 | 315,000 | 2.26 |
| 高收入住户（每月收入高于$1,500） | 39,900 | 241,000 | 6.04 |
| 车辆拥有户 | 36,800 | 144,000 | 3.91 |
| 非车辆拥有户 | 509,500 | 685,000 | 1.34 |
| 学生 | 647,600 | 1,081,000 | 1.67 |
| 每日公共交通使用量 | 2,721,700 | 4,467,000 | 1.64 |
| |||
以上加设香港会继续以稳定快速地发展。然而，[我们]并不预期未来会有过去个别年份或香港经济个别范畴的惊人增长，亦不预期会有明显的倒退。 过去，香港大部分人口和发展集中于香港岛北岸及九龙半岛。近期，大型发展已延展至九龙北部及观塘。现时新界已规划三个大型新市镇，其中第一个在荃湾的新市镇发展正在顺利进行。这些新市镇将会对香港未来的交通运输造成非常大的影响。虽然这些新市镇被规划作可以自给自足的社区，但过往经验显示来往各住宅、商业及工作核心地区亦有相当大的交通需求。发展区之间的距离不足以构成出行的阻碍：香港岛中区至新界青山的直线距离为15英里，而荃湾中部至沙田亦仅为8英里。这些新市镇的居民亦会构成九龙及香港岛交通需求的一大部分。
出行模式
香港现时大约七成半的行程使用公共交通；约一半为巴士行程、渡轮占百分之14、电车占百分之11。九广铁路仅构成少于百分之一的车程，剩馀的行程则包括私家车、合法的士、白牌车、货车、多用途车辆及私人巴士等等。
香港人使用公共交通运输系统日渐增加。十年前，平均每人每年乘坐公共交通244次，现在平均为335次；这反映低收入群组的生活水平正在提升。不少过去只能步行出行的人现在可以使用公共交通代步。同时，因原先的空地被发展作新的住宅、商业及工业用地，有迹象显示出行的行程变长。
在每天不同时间、每周不同日子以至每年不同月份，香港公共交通的使用分布相对其他城市来得平均，因而构成其高利润及低票价的特征。繁忙时间的出行仅占一般日子的少于一成；周内的出行分布亦仅为最低周四的百分之13.4至最高周六的百分之15.4。年内的出行分布更为平均，每月均占全年出行的八至九个百分比。
尽管香港的汽车数量很与人口相比很少，但此比例正在迅速扩大。1956年，每一千人拥有11辆汽车，现在增加至25辆。香港现时私家车数量是1948年的10倍。按照世界标准，每英里道路的车辆数量非常高，仅次于摩纳哥和直布罗陀。
考虑到各样因素，可以得知香港的出行需求不能继续单由地面交通来满足。在许多地方，拥堵情况日益严重，而且很可能会变得更糟。事实上，公共交通车辆将不得不以越来越慢的时间表运行，这将需要更多的车辆来维持恒定的服务水平。 当然，额外的车辆会增加提供服务的成本并导致更多的道路拥堵。另一方面，这些因素将确保不共用路面的地铁（捷运）系统的成功。
Public mass transport is the most efficient means of moving people. The limited road mileage in Hong Kong requires such efficiency, and since a large proportion of travel is still by public transport, every effort should be made to retain it by improving and expanding the system.
RECOMMENDED SYSTEM
The principal recommendation is that a 40-mile rail rapid-transit system be built to improve transport service and to relieve the burden on the surface street system. Projections of travel show that vast improvements to the surface street system would be needed by 1986 just to serve the needs of public transport if such a grade-separated system is not constructed. The capacity of many existing and proposed major roads could be exceeded by bus traffic alone, leaving no room for cars, taxis and lorries.
The rapid-transit system has been designed to operate as four separate lines, namely:
- The Kwun Tong line, from Western Market to Ma Yau Tong
- The Tsuen Wan line, from the Naval Dockyard to Tsuen Wan
- The Island line, from Kennedy Town to Chai Wan
- The Sha Tin line, from Tsim Sha Tsui to Sha Tin
with convenient passenger interchange facilities at several stations. Most of the system will be underground but about eight miles will be on overhead structure. The lines have been routed so as to penetrate the most densely developed areas, and the stations have been located to serve the maximum number of people commensurate with rapid operation.
There are 50 stations on the system, 8 of which are common to 2 or more lines. The average station spacing is 0.72 miles but is about 0.5 miles in the more intensively developed areas. This spacing will allow average speeds including station stops of 20 miles per hour or more—nearly double present public transport speeds.
It is envisaged that a complex system of bus routes will connect with the rapid-transit system to serve passengers who do not have origins or destinations within walking distance of stations. A hovercraft ferry service between Hong Kong Island and Castle Peak is also planned. The Peak Tramway, the Kowloon-Canton Railway, the outlying ferry services, and at least one cross-harbour ferry are expected to be operating in the design year as they do now. The volume of bus travel will continue to grow throughout the next 20 years even though the rapid transit is expected to be carrying 33 per cent of the total public transport load by 1986.
Construction of the system is planned in six stages. Although in each stage work on two, and sometimes three, stages would be going on simultaneously, most of the Kwun Tong Line would be built in Stage 1, most of the Tsuen Wan Line in Stage 2, most of the Island Line in Stage 3 and all of the Sha Tin Line in Stages 5 and 6. With the aim of having the entire system in operation by 1985, detailed design is scheduled to start in 1968 and construction in 1970. The first line should then be ready for operation in 1974; additional lines coming into service about every two years thereafter.
After considering all the various alternatives it was concluded that the best service consistent with low cost and dependability can be provided with electrically-powered, steel-wheel cars operating on steel rail. The system has therefore been designed to accommodate trains of large, powerful, high-capacity cars. Stations, platforms, car doors and seating arrangements have all been laid out for quick loading and unloading under heavy traffic conditions. Automatic train control and possibly automatic fare collection will assure maximum efficiency with minimum manpower.
COST AND REVENUE
The total cost to build and equip the system is estimated to be $3,404 million[2]—an average of about $200 million a year throughout the 17-year period of design and construction. Of this amount, 58 per cent is for line and station construction, 36 per cent for equipment and furnishings and 6 per cent for land. The total annual operating expenses, including depreciation, range from $21.9 million in 1974 to $104.8 million in 1986.
These may seem to be very large amounts of money, but it must be remembered that they are the total costs of a comprehensive long range programme related to one of the most important facets of urban life. If the amounts that have been spent during the last 20 years on housing, waterworks or roads had been predicted in the late 1940's they would have seemed completely unbelievable; yet year by year the necessary capital funds have been found.
A fare schedule varying with distance and equal for both surface transport and rapid-transit travel up to five miles is recommended. For longer journeys higher fares on rapid-transit are proposed in recognition of the faster service. The fares on which the revenue estimates are based have been established in line with present levels and the cheapest fare, for a trip of less than 1.25 miles, is 10 cents.
The estimated annual gross revenue from the rapid-transit system based on the recommended fare schedule ranges from $36 million in 1974, the first year of operation, to $342 million in 1985 when the entire system will be in use. The total net revenue available for debt service from start of operation to the year 2004, 20 years after completion of construction, is $6,286 million. Discounted cash flow calculations ignoring the residual value of the system after 2004 show that this amount is sufficient to pay for the system at an interest rate of 4.2 per cent.
Finance at this low interest rate is unlikely in practice to be obtainable and some assistance from public funds in the early years is likely to be necessary. This can be justified in light of practices in other cities, but still more important it can be justified in consideration of the many benefits to all the people of Hong Kong. The benefits will not be limited to those who use the system but will be spread among all who travel. The routes, stations, trains and fare structure have all been designed to attract the maximum number of people away from the streets and thus to leave them as uncongested as possible for the free movement of the Colony's commerce.
While all travellers will receive some benefits, public transport passengers and more particularly rapid-transit users will receive the most. It has been estimated that over 270,000 hours will be saved each day in the design year by public transport users. If time is valued at only $1.20 per hour, the direct time savings alone will amount to $111 million in 1986 which exceeds the whole cost of operating the rapid transit for that year, and is more than half the average annual capital outlay during the building period, 1968–1984.