Archive:Hong Kong Mass Transport Study/Summary/zh
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概述
此研究的目的是为香港长期的公共交通问题制定符合规划目标、发展计划和一定程度的流动性的最佳解决方案，以使香港继续繁荣发展。通过对各个规划和运输的调查中收集的资讯进行分析和预测，[我们]确认有[对大众运输的]长期需求，从而定出一个完整的公共交通系统的基本要素，并制定了实行的计划。
香港－过去与现在
香港是一个可以以人口稠密、充满活力、发展迅速来形容的社区。通过其人民的辛勤工作和政府的富有想像力的规划，一座伟大的城市已经从一个地形没有希望的地区雕刻出来。在十九世纪中叶开始时，它只有一项资产——一个好港口。这片土地主要由陡峭的山坡组成，但通过移山填海，创造了可利用的土地。
尽管香港遭受了许多自然、经济和民间的挫折，但她总是以新的活力反弹。自1841年以来，平均人口增长率约为每年三万人，其他大多数增长和活力指标亦同步增长。在过去五年中，每天的平均增幅如下：[1]
| 人口增长 | 300 | 人 |
| 学校收录学生增长 | 130 | 人 |
| 公共交通乘客增长 | 520 | 人 |
| 注册车辆增长 | 21 | 辆 |
| 轿车 | 11 | 辆 |
| 有牌司机增长 | 42 | 人 |
| 流通量增长 | 452,000 | 港元 |
| 交易量增长 | 12,400 | 港元 |
可展现物理和经济增长的指标是无穷无尽的。香港每天正在变得更大、更繁荣，因此更加依赖充足和可靠的出行方式。
未来香港
本研究的不少部分都在于预测选定年份1986年的各种特征上。在世界各地的其他城市进行的许多类似研究中发现，预测出行的最佳方法是将其与其他城市生活和行为模式（如家庭、就业、家庭收入和汽车拥有量等）联系起来人口。下表展示了一些增长预测。
| 项目 | 1965 | 1986 | RATIO 1986/1965 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 香港整体 | |||
| 人口 | 3,460,200 | 6,868,000 | 1.98 |
| 户数 | 706,200 | 1,450,000 | 2.05 |
| 就业人口 | 1,377,200 | 2,706,000 | 1.96 |
| 每日出行次数 | 4,280,300 | 11,066,000 | 2.59 |
| 每日公共交通使用量 | 3,320,500 | 7,404,000 | 2.23 |
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| |||
| Population | 2,808,800 | 3,950,000 | 1.41 |
| Households | 546,300 | 828,000 | 1.52 |
| Employment | 1,095,500 | 1,505,000 | 1.37 |
| Low income households (less than $600 per month) | 367,000 | 273,000 | 0.74 |
| Medium income households ($601 to $1,500 per month) | 139,300 | 315,000 | 2.26 |
| High income households (over $1,500 per month) | 39,900 | 241,000 | 6.04 |
| Car-owning households | 36,800 | 144,000 | 3.91 |
| Non-car-owning households | 509,500 | 685,000 | 1.34 |
| Students | 647,600 | 1,081,000 | 1.67 |
| Public transport trips per day | 2,721,700 | 4,467,000 | 1.64 |
It has been assumed that Hong Kong will continue to grow at a strong and steady rate. But the spectacular gains that have been made in certain past years, or in certain segments of the economy, have not been anticipated for the future. Nor have major setbacks been anticipated.
In the past, most of the population and associated development in the Colony was concentrated on the north shore of Hong Kong Island and on the Kowloon peninsula. More recently, major developments have spread into the northern portions of Kowloon and easterly to Kwun Tong. Now three vast new towns have been planned in the New Territories and development is well under way on the first at Tsuen Wan. These new towns will have a great effect on transport in the Colony in the future. Although they are planned as self-contained communities, experience shows that there will be considerable demand for travel of all types between all residential, commercial and employment centres. The distances between developed areas will not be sufficiently great to discourage travel. The straight line distance from the Central District on Hong Kong Island to Castle Peak is 15 miles and it is only about 8 miles to the centre of Tsuen Wan and Sha Tin, so people living in the new towns will contribute greatly to the transport service needs in Kowloon and on Hong Kong Island.
TRAVEL CHARACTERISTICS
Approximately 75 per cent of all trips made in Hong Kong today are by public transport; about 50 per cent are by bus, 14 per cent by ferry and 11 per cent by tram. The Kowloon-Canton Railway accounts for less than one per cent and the remainder are divided among cars, taxis (legal and illegal), public cars, lorries, dual-purpose vehicles, private buses, etc. In 1954 approximately 50 per cent of the public transport trips were made by bus. Now 67 per cent are by this mode.
The people of Hong Kong are using their public transport system more each day. Ten years ago the average person made 244 public transport trips per year; now he makes 335. This reflects a rising standard of living among the lower income groups. Many people who had to walk in the past now ride. There are also indications that trips are getting longer as new residential, commercial and industrial developments spring up in formerly vacant areas.
One feature of public transport in Hong Kong which contributes to its high profitability and low fares, is that riding is spread much more uniformly over the hours of the day, days of the week and months of the year than in most other cities. The peak hour of travel on an average day is less than 10 per cent of the total, and daily travel varies from 13.7 per cent of the weekly total on Thursdays to 15.4 per cent on Saturdays. There is even less variation on a monthly basis, with 8 to 9 per cent of the total annual trips being made in each month.
Although the number of motor vehicles in Hong Kong compared to the population is small it is growing rapidly. In I956 there were 11 motor vehicles for every 1,000 people, and now there are 25. There are 10 times as many private cars in the Colony as there were in 1948. The number of vehicles per mile of road is extremely high by world standards. Only Monaco and Gibraltar have more.
Consideration of these and many other factors has led to the conclusion that the travel needs of Hong Kong cannot continue to be wholly served by surface transport. Increasing congestion is already evident at many places and it is likely to get much worse. As it does, public transport vehicles will have to operate on slower and slower schedules which will require many more vehicles just in the attempt to maintain a constant level of service. The additional vehicles will, of course, increase the cost of providing service and cause more road congestion. On the other hand, these very factors will ensure the success of a grade-separated rapid-transit system.
Public mass transport is the most efficient means of moving people. The limited road mileage in Hong Kong requires such efficiency, and since a large proportion of travel is still by public transport, every effort should be made to retain it by improving and expanding the system.
RECOMMENDED SYSTEM
The principal recommendation is that a 40-mile rail rapid-transit system be built to improve transport service and to relieve the burden on the surface street system. Projections of travel show that vast improvements to the surface street system would be needed by 1986 just to serve the needs of public transport if such a grade-separated system is not constructed. The capacity of many existing and proposed major roads could be exceeded by bus traffic alone, leaving no room for cars, taxis and lorries.
The rapid-transit system has been designed to operate as four separate lines, namely:
- The Kwun Tong line, from Western Market to Ma Yau Tong
- The Tsuen Wan line, from the Naval Dockyard to Tsuen Wan
- The Island line, from Kennedy Town to Chai Wan
- The Sha Tin line, from Tsim Sha Tsui to Sha Tin
with convenient passenger interchange facilities at several stations. Most of the system will be underground but about eight miles will be on overhead structure. The lines have been routed so as to penetrate the most densely developed areas, and the stations have been located to serve the maximum number of people commensurate with rapid operation.
There are 50 stations on the system, 8 of which are common to 2 or more lines. The average station spacing is 0.72 miles but is about 0.5 miles in the more intensively developed areas. This spacing will allow average speeds including station stops of 20 miles per hour or more—nearly double present public transport speeds.
It is envisaged that a complex system of bus routes will connect with the rapid-transit system to serve passengers who do not have origins or destinations within walking distance of stations. A hovercraft ferry service between Hong Kong Island and Castle Peak is also planned. The Peak Tramway, the Kowloon-Canton Railway, the outlying ferry services, and at least one cross-harbour ferry are expected to be operating in the design year as they do now. The volume of bus travel will continue to grow throughout the next 20 years even though the rapid transit is expected to be carrying 33 per cent of the total public transport load by 1986.
Construction of the system is planned in six stages. Although in each stage work on two, and sometimes three, stages would be going on simultaneously, most of the Kwun Tong Line would be built in Stage 1, most of the Tsuen Wan Line in Stage 2, most of the Island Line in Stage 3 and all of the Sha Tin Line in Stages 5 and 6. With the aim of having the entire system in operation by 1985, detailed design is scheduled to start in 1968 and construction in 1970. The first line should then be ready for operation in 1974; additional lines coming into service about every two years thereafter.
After considering all the various alternatives it was concluded that the best service consistent with low cost and dependability can be provided with electrically-powered, steel-wheel cars operating on steel rail. The system has therefore been designed to accommodate trains of large, powerful, high-capacity cars. Stations, platforms, car doors and seating arrangements have all been laid out for quick loading and unloading under heavy traffic conditions. Automatic train control and possibly automatic fare collection will assure maximum efficiency with minimum manpower.
COST AND REVENUE
The total cost to build and equip the system is estimated to be $3,404 million[2]—an average of about $200 million a year throughout the 17-year period of design and construction. Of this amount, 58 per cent is for line and station construction, 36 per cent for equipment and furnishings and 6 per cent for land. The total annual operating expenses, including depreciation, range from $21.9 million in 1974 to $104.8 million in 1986.
These may seem to be very large amounts of money, but it must be remembered that they are the total costs of a comprehensive long range programme related to one of the most important facets of urban life. If the amounts that have been spent during the last 20 years on housing, waterworks or roads had been predicted in the late 1940's they would have seemed completely unbelievable; yet year by year the necessary capital funds have been found.
A fare schedule varying with distance and equal for both surface transport and rapid-transit travel up to five miles is recommended. For longer journeys higher fares on rapid-transit are proposed in recognition of the faster service. The fares on which the revenue estimates are based have been established in line with present levels and the cheapest fare, for a trip of less than 1.25 miles, is 10 cents.
The estimated annual gross revenue from the rapid-transit system based on the recommended fare schedule ranges from $36 million in 1974, the first year of operation, to $342 million in 1985 when the entire system will be in use. The total net revenue available for debt service from start of operation to the year 2004, 20 years after completion of construction, is $6,286 million. Discounted cash flow calculations ignoring the residual value of the system after 2004 show that this amount is sufficient to pay for the system at an interest rate of 4.2 per cent.
Finance at this low interest rate is unlikely in practice to be obtainable and some assistance from public funds in the early years is likely to be necessary. This can be justified in light of practices in other cities, but still more important it can be justified in consideration of the many benefits to all the people of Hong Kong. The benefits will not be limited to those who use the system but will be spread among all who travel. The routes, stations, trains and fare structure have all been designed to attract the maximum number of people away from the streets and thus to leave them as uncongested as possible for the free movement of the Colony's commerce.
While all travellers will receive some benefits, public transport passengers and more particularly rapid-transit users will receive the most. It has been estimated that over 270,000 hours will be saved each day in the design year by public transport users. If time is valued at only $1.20 per hour, the direct time savings alone will amount to $111 million in 1986 which exceeds the whole cost of operating the rapid transit for that year, and is more than half the average annual capital outlay during the building period, 1968–1984.