Archive:Hong Kong Mass Transport Study/Chapter 4

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Hong Kong Mass Transport Study, Chapter 4 Planning Characteristics and Projections

Chapter 5 — Travel Characteristics and Projections

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PLANNING CHARACTERISTICS AND PROJECTIONS

1. The amount and nature of future travel in the Colony will depend largely on population, employment, income, car ownership and the pattern, density and distribution of land uses, particularly within the future urbanized areas. The transportation planning process uses the relationships between the movement of people and those measurable human activities that dictate the pattern of urban and rural development. Planning studies, therefore, form the basis for projecting future travel needs and developing the best means of meeting those needs.

SOURCE OF PLANNING DATA

2. The primary source of base-year data on population and household characteristics was the home-interview survey carried i out in 1965 by the Passenger Transport Survey Unit. Additional information was obtained from the Census and Statistical Office, the Planning Division of the Crown Lands and Survey Office and a number of other sources.

PRESENTATION OF PLANNING DATA

3. Planning statistics were compiled for traffic zones. Because of the large number of such zones, tabular information is summarised according to major geographic areas and shown in the appendix tables in greater detail according to sectors. Boundaries of zones and sectors in the design year are shown in Figure 13. A sector may be either a whole primary zone or a subdivision of a primary zone and is designed to consolidate areas with distinctive land use and planning characteristics. Because the home-interview survey covered the urban area only, base-year data on the New Territories have been developed from estimated changes since the 1961 census. The zones composing primary Zone 8 were re-arranged for the presentation of design-year data to better illustrate the anticipated developments in this area.
4. The Passenger Transport Survey Unit home-interview sample was drawn from lists of households divided into housing types. It was possible to obtain good control totals for Resettlement, Government Low-cost, Housing Society and Housing Authority estates, and reasonable data for squatters. It was difficult however, to obtain accurate control totals for households in other forms of residential development. The definitions of domestic and non-domestic premises cause conflict between building permit and occupancy certificate records as regards use of floor space. Many floors in domestic buildings are used for non-domestic purposes and many non-residential buildings have families residing in them. Therefore, the initial expansion of the households did not represent the true total number in residential development in each zone. It was therefore necessary to make a separate estimate of total households by traffic zones for
5. This was done by using as guides the mid-year 1965 population estimate for the Colony as a whole, estimates of New Territories population and of people residing in various forms of non-domestic space. The marine population is not included, so the figures relate to the land population only.
6. A sample survey type by-census was conducted by the Government in 1966. It indicated a somewhat smaller population than the projections based on the 1961 census. Unfortunately, the results of the by-census were not available in time for use in this report. If future comparisons show that population is not increasing as fast as the projections indicate, then it can be assumed that the figures relating to 1986 are too high. This will simply mean that the "design-year" conditions will be reached at a later date. It should be noted, however, that the population forecasts in this report are slightly lower than those provided by the Census and Statistical Planning Office. The travel forecasts presented in the next chapter for the New Territories (the area in which the greatest population discrepancy is likely to occur) were developed cautiously, since few base-year data were available. They are therefore, even more conservative than the other projections.

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Figure 13 — Design-year Traffic Zones and Sectors

POPULATION DISTRIBUTION

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6. The total Colony population forecast for the design year is based on unpublished projections made by the Census and Statistical Planning Office. The underlying assumptions are that there will be no change in the general fertility rate, a steady decline in the mortality rate and a mean net gain of 10,000 persons per year through migration. The Planning Division of the Crown Lands and Survey Office estimated the population distribution for 1986. These estimates were made for private development, resettlement and Government-aided housing estates. They covered 18 secondary planning units in the urban area and 33 secondary planning units in the New Territories. No distribution forecast was provided for marine population.
7. Distribution of these control estimates according to traffic zones was undertaken by the Consultants on the basis of analyses of household size by house type, estimates of the extent and distribution of private development and assumed improvements in space standards in resettlement and government-aided housing. Full account was taken of approved and proposed zoning plans prepared under the Town Planning Ordinance.
8. As indicated by the 1965 home-interview survey, an estimated 2.8 million people or 81 per cent of the total population resided in the urban area, on Hong Kong Island and in Kowloon. Over half of the total estimated Colony population resided in Kowloon, 25.5 per cent on Hong Kong Island and the remainder in the New Territories which include the outlying islands. Almost a third of the New Territories residents, about 214,000 people, lived in Tsuen Wan. Already, therefore, the Government New Town Programme is beginning to shape the pattern of life in the New Territories by creating large new urban centres.
9. Estimated population for the base year (1965) compared with the design year (1986) indicates an expected increase of 3,407,720 or 93 per cent over the 21-year period. Table 29 summarises the population changes by major geographical areas.

10. Population by House Type — In the base year about 22.7 per cent of the urban area population lived in resettlement estates, and 8.5 per cent in other government-aided housing; and there were some 523,000 squatters, who formed about 18.6 per cent of the urban area population. The remainder lived in many other forms of housing, ranging from bedspaces and cubicles to private flats and single family dwellings.
11. A vast government building programme began in 1954 and was expanded in 1965. This direct government action in the housing field is combined with government assistance to the Housing Authority and the Housing Society. As programmed up to 1971 and projected to 1986, there will be about 2,703,000 people living in resettlement estates and about 1,149,000 people in Government Low-cost, Housing Authority and Housing Society estates. Thus about 56 per cent of the total land population will be living in housing either built or directly aided by government. It is assumed that most, if not all, squatters will be rehoused in permanent accommodation by 1971. This large capital investment in housing on the part of the government is a major cause of the changes in the distribution of population and households as shown in Table 30.

12. Major increases in population on the Island are expected as a result of the planned large scale developments at Aberdeen, the Housing Authority development at Pok Fu Lam, continued development at Chai Wan and private housing developments at Repulse Bay, Stanley and Pok Fu Lam. The projected development on the old Naval Dockyard site will increase population in the central area. For the Western District and parts of Wan Chai, a slight reduction in population is anticipated in view of rebuilding, urban renewal and an increase in commercial floor space.
13. In Kowloon the major growth points are centred on public developments at Kwun Tong, and in the Tsz Wan Shan, Diamond Hill, Ho Man Tin and Lai Chi Kok Bay areas. Major private housing developments will be at Lai Chi Kok, Ho Man Tin, Kwun Tong and in the vicinity of Lung Cheung Road. Growth is also expected at the Cheung Sha Wan and Hung Hom reclamations and a planned resettlement estate at Junk Bay. In Yau Ma Tei and Mong Kok, slight reductions in population are expected as a result of increasing commercial development and rises in standard of living space.
14. In the New Territories, the Tsuen Wan area will have a population of about 1,017,000, Castle Peak about 695,000 and Sha Tin about 590,000. These large urban centres will be products of the Government New Town Programme. Projected populations for other centres in the New Territories anticipate increases at Yuen Long and Tai Po due to both government-aided and private develop ment. Growth at Fanling and Sheung Shui will occur as a natural continuation of current trends.
15. Population Density — Local business activity and transport services are influenced by variations in population density and so, consequently, are travel patterns. Because of the changing mixture, and often the vertical instead of horizontal distribution of land uses, density can most accurately be expressed as the relationship of total population to total land area.

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Figure 14 — Base-year Population Density

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Figure 15 — Design-year Population Density

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Figure 16 — Design-year New Territories Population Density

16. Figure 14 shows the population density by traffic zone in the base year. It is clear that while the intensity of individual residential developments varies widely, a distinct pattern emerges which indicates the varying nature of the development and concentration in the buildable land areas. There are strips of high density along the north shore of Hong Kong Island, up the Nathan Road corridor to So Uk and along the east side of the Kowloon Peninsula. These high density areas, ranging from 200 to over 1,000 persons per acre, contrast with the lower densities—10 to 199 persons per acre—of the Mid-levels, Pok Fu Lam, Aberdeen, King's Park, Kowloon Tong and Kowloon Tsai. Certain zones stand out as being relatively undeveloped hillsides, catchment and forestry areas, such as the Peak, the south-eastern half of Hong Kong Island, Kowloon Peak and the Anderson Road and Rennies Mill area. Other urban zones which show little or no population are either primarily industrial or currently undeveloped reclamation areas.
17. The overall density of population in the Colony will increase from about 9,000 persons per square mile to over 17,000. While this reflects a highly-urbanised community, the 398 square mile land area used in making this calculation includes a high proportion of precipitous hillsides, marshland and other undevelopable land, as well as 69 square miles of offshore islands. Thus it does not fully reflect the much higher densities, both present and future, of that part of the Colony in which most of the population and business activity is concentrated.
18. Figure 15 shows the future population densities by zones. The concentrations of high density are indicated clearly by this map.
19. On Hong Kong Island, the planned developments at Shau Kei Wan and Chai Wan are at a high density, but the zones as delineated contain large areas of hillside not scheduled for development, so the gross densities are only in the 200-499 persons-per-acre range. The Housing Authority, Wah Fu estate and the plans for Aberdeen account for the comparatively high density zones, which in 1965 were of low density. Repulse Bay and Stanley will experience growth, but the density of both areas will remain in the low range. The Peak remains at a low density while Mount Butler, Mount Parker, Mount Collinson, and the areas around Tai Tam reservoir and Shek O remain basically as open country.
20. In Kowloon, Ho Man Tin stands out as a high density zone that was virtually undeveloped in the base year. South-east from Choi Hung, apart from the industrial areas adjacent to Kowloon Bay, the Kwun Tong area will have high residential densities up to Lei Yue Mun.
21. Most parts of the New Territories will remain predominantly rural. Thus Tsuen Wan, Castle Peak and Sha Tin stand out prominently in Figure 16 as the areas of high urban density. The anticipated growth in most of the other New Territories towns is insufficient to have much effect on the overall density of the larger zones.

HOUSEHOLDS

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Figure 17 — Households by Type of Housing

22. From a transportation planning standpoint, the grouping of the population into households or family living units is a significant factor, as family-oriented travel is an important part of trip generation. Table 31 shows the number of households by geographic areas and by type of housing accommodation, for both the base and the design years. Figure 17 shows in graphic form the number of house holds by housing type.

23. Household Size — Household size varies considerably with location and housing type. Larger households occur in Government-aided housing. Data from "Other" forms of housing should be treated with caution, since they relate to residential accommodation ranging from luxury flats and houses to single bedspaces. The average house hold in the urban area was found to contain 5.14 people in 1965.
24. By 1986 the anticipated average number of persons per household will be 4.7. This decline is projected for two reasons. The young are expected to be more financially independent, thus enabling them to marry and establish their own homes at an earlier age; also, higher wages are anticipated for the labour force as a whole and this will reduce the extent to which accommodation is shared.

EMPLOYMENT

25. As work trips will continue to form a large proportion of all daily travel, it is important to establish the relationship between the location and type of employment and the place of residence of the worker (labour force). The Passenger Transport Survey Unit provided information on the occupations of household members, the industries in which they were employed and the locations of their work places in the base year. Employment projections have been made based upon anticipated development for three industrial groups. The resultant changes in employment between the base year and design year are shown in Table 32. While the greatest increases are expected to take place in retail trade, the overall employment figures correspond closely with expected increases in population and labour force.

26. Distribution of Employment — In the base year, total employment is estimated at about 1,377,000 jobs. Of these 31.5 per cent are on Hong Kong Island, 48.1 per cent in Kowloon and only 20.4 per cent are in the New Territories. The distribution of employment by major geographic areas and type of work is indicated in Table 33, for both the base year and the design year.
27. In the base year, manufacturing accounted for 41.7 per cent of total employment and retail trade 10.2 per cent. Manufacturing is already influencing the development pattern in the New Territories, with 85,000 such jobs located there. These are predominantly in Tsuen Wan. It is also significant that the proportion employed in manufacturing in Hong Kong (41.7 per cent) is higher than in such cities as London and Melbourne, where it is about 34.9 and 35.0 per cent, respectively.

28. By 1986, total employment is expected to number about 2,706,000 jobs. Of these 24.1 per cent will be on Hong Kong Island, 31.5 per cent in Kowloon and 44.4 per cent in the New Territories. About 1,065,000 jobs, or 39.3 per cent of total employment, will be in manufacturing, and by 1986, 43.4 per cent of all manufacturing jobs will be located in the New Territories. This Vvill be the result of industrial developments at Tsuen Wan, Castle Peak and Sha Tin.
29. For day-to-day needs, the pattern of retail trade will continue to reflect population distribution since major housing developments are planned to include shopping facilities. However, major town centre retailing areas are expected to be developed at Kwun Tong and in each of the new towns. Total employment in retail trade will increase threefold by 1986, and will constitute a higher proportion of total employment than at present.
30. "Other" employment will total about 1,292,000 jobs and both business and personal service industries will increase greatly as the economy expands and personal wealth increases. Government departments, particularly in the areas of education, health and medical services, will grow to keep pace with the needs of the increasing population. Employment in Central Victoria, the centre of Government, banking, insurance and trading activities, will rise noticeably. Mong Kok will also experience expansion of commercial activity.

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Figure 18 — Design-year Employment Density

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Figure 19 — Design-year New Territories Employment Density

31. Density of Employment — The pattern of employment per acre anticipated for 1986 in the urban area as shown in Figure 18, is not significantly different from that in 1965. There is a high employment-density belt along the north shore of Hong Kong Island. This reaches its peak in Central District which will continue to be the Government, financial, and commercial centre of a community numbering nearly seven million people in 1986. In Kowloon, Mong Kok stands out as the main business and commercial centre in the belt of high-density employment along Nathan Road from Tsim Sha Tsui to Cheung Sha Wan. The zones along the Chatham Road corridor, continuing through Kowloon City and Wong Tai Sin to Tsz Wan Shan, reflect a continuation of mixed land uses, with 50 to 199 employees per acre. The industrial estates at San Po Kong and Kwun Tong are readily identifiable as areas of heavy employment concentration.
32. The large industrial expansion expected in the New Territories will be confined to those zones in which new towns are planned. Figure 19 illustrates that for most of the New Territories outside these three new towns, little change in the employment pattern is expected. Industrial plants away from the new towns will take up surplus agricultural labour and so will not increase employment density.

LABOUR FORCE

33. People living in the urban area, who worked 10 hours or more each week at the time of the home interview were included in the resident labour force. Estimates of the New Territories labour force were made from 1961 census data. The location of workers' residences established the home end of trips to and from work. Their occupation is classified as "manual" or "non-manual".
34. The relationship between the "occupation status" and "industry codes" used in the home-interview survey and the "manual" or "non-manual" classification is as follows:

OCCUPATIONAL STATUS	CLASSIFICATION
	Manufacturing, processing transport and communications, construction and maintenance	All other Industry Codes
Unskilled labour	Manual	Manual
Skilled labour	Manual	Non-manual
Self-employed persons	Manual	Non-manual
Shop and office clerks	Non-manual	Non-manual
Managerial and supervisory	Non-manual	Non-manual

35. Using this classification, in the base year 72.1 per cent of the total labour force were manual workers, and 27.9 per cent were non-manual. The total resident labour force was estimated as 39.8 per cent of the total Colony land population.
36. The labour force is expected to increase from 1,377,000 to 2,676,000 by the design year. The total labour force as a proportion of total population is then expected to be about 39 per cent. The effect on the labour force of the gap in age group 15-24, as was noted in the 1961 census, will have lessened by 1986.
37. As the economic base of the Colony grows the demand for goods and services will increase. The non-manual portion of the labour force will therefore expand with the increase in professional, administrative and clerical services, and the upgrading of those employed in retailing, and has been projected to rise to 37.8 per cent in the design year.
38. Distribution of Labour Force — The distribution of labour force is similar to that for population as shown in Table 34. There is no great geographic variation in the proportions of manual and non-manual labour force. Central Victoria, the Mid-levels and North Point are the only areas where there are more resident non-manual than manual workers.

39. It is worth noting that while only 27.7 per cent of the base-year labour force resided on Hong Kong Island, 31.5 per cent of all jobs were located there. Similarly, 51.9 per cent of the labour force lived in Kowloon but the proportion of total jobs there was 48.1 per cent. The total urban area accounted for 79.6 per cent of both employment and labour force.
40. Projections to the 1986 design year indicate that Hong Kong Island and Kowloon will contain 55.6 per cent of employment and of labour force but that Hong Kong Island will have 24.1 per cent of employment with only 18.9 per cent of the labour force. This will result in continued heavy travel across the harbour between the Island and Kowloon.

HOUSEHOLD INCOME

41. The home-interview survey was designed to provide data on the relationship between household income, car ownership and travel generation. Information on income was obtained by household groups in the home-interview survey by eight income ranges.
42. In travel analysis, the relative household income is of more importance than the absolute amount. Therefore, to make the data more manageable and to limit the number of household categories to be used in the projections, the eight income ranges were grouped into three basic classes as follows:

Income Class	Monthly Income	Per Cent Households by Class
Low	Less than $600	67.20
Medium	$601 to $1,500	25.50
High	Over $1,500	7.30

43. Distribution of Households by Income Class — Each of the three income classes contains a large enough number of households to provide stable relationships. The distribution of households by income class is shown in Table 35.

44. Indications of Rise in Personal Income — The amounts collected by the Government in duties, rates and internal revenue are an indication of increases in personal wealth and standard of living. In the 1958-59 financial year, out of a total Colony revenue of $629.32 million (about $225 per capita) $380.76 million, or 60.5 per cent, was derived from duties, rates and internal revenue. In the 1964-65 period, the total Colony revenue was $1,518.28 million (about $410 per capita) and of this $914.59 million, or 60.2 per cent, was derived from duties, rates and internal revenue. In 1965 an additional $85.0 million or 5.7 per cent was derived from licences and franchises, most of which came from the royalties paid by the public utility companies. Thus about 65.9 per cent of the Colony revenue comes from indirect taxation on the spending public.
45. The rise in revenue gained from entertainment tax cannot be attributed merely to population growth nor increases in the tax rate, since neither has risen in proportion. Figure 20 shows a number of indicators of rising personal wealth, such as the rapid growth of car ownership and the demand for telephones. Equally relevant is that whereas in 1958 (the first year of operation) there were only 2,500 sets linked to Rediffusion wired television, by the end of the first quarter of 1966, there were 55,000.

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Figure 20 — Indicators of Increasing Personal Health

46. Increase in Real Wages — The wage index, as calculated by the Department of Labour from data relating to about 55 per cent of the labour force, shows that wage rates rose by 73 per cent between 1958 and 1965. According to the Report on the Cost of Living Survey 1958-1963/64, the cost of living rose by only 14 per cent. Thus the increase in real wages—that is, the extra money available for spending by an individual worker—was over 50 per cent between 1958 and 1965. This large increase in incomes over a relatively short period is apparently a consequence of the rapid industrialisation that began in the early 1950's.
47. The growth rate in incomes up to 1986 will not be so rapid. There are increasing demands on Government for much larger expenditure on social services, education, housing, medical and health care. In addition, the planned public works programme will require major increases in expenditure on roads, drainage, transportation and other public services. The money for these items can only be raised by income taxes, duties, licences, fees, etc. Therefore, both direct and indirect taxation will probably increase over the period to 1986. Considering all these trends, there should be solid but not spectacular improvement in the general economy; and it has been estimated that household incomes will rise by 3.5 per cent per year to 1986, assuming constant 1965 monetary values.
48. By 1986 it is expected that the distribution of households amongst the three income classes will be as follows: 33.1 per cent in the low range, 38.5 in the medium and 28.4 in the high range.

CAR OWNERSHIP

49. Household income and car ownership directly affect the number of trips and the choice of travel mode by members of a household. The mobility afforded by a car usually results in different travel patterns for car-owning and non-car-owning households. Public transport riding generally declines as car ownership increases.
50. The advantages of car ownership are less pronounced in high density areas. Numerous households concentrated into a small area support shops and service establishments which depend on walk-in trade and people can thus supply their daily needs without using motorised transport. Areas of high density usually support a higher level of public transport service, even in off-peak periods. Parking is often difficult in these areas and the availability of off-street parking for residential property often affects the decision to purchase a car. Traffic congestion tends to discourage all forms of transport but, since public transport services are often affected more adversely than cars, congestion, with the attendant low speeds, delays and parking difficulties, has less effect on car ownership than is generally assumed. This may discourage the use of a car but has little effect on the decision to buy.
51. The home-interview survey identified as "car-owning" any household having the full use of a motor car on the day to which the home interview related. A number of private cars are companyowned and not used for personal travel by members of households. The data from the home interview on car ownership, therefore, does not include those households which might have partial use of cars of this type.
52. Cars were available in 6.7 per cent of all households in the base year. By comparison, cars were owned in 38 per cent of all London households in 1962. In Melbourne, 63 per cent of the households had cars in 1964, while in large American cities about 75 per cent of the households are car-owning.
53. The present urban form of Hong Kong, with its high densities, large amount of mixed residential and commercial use and the full site coverage of buildings, severely limits the amount of off-street parking space available. With the large government building programme and the progressively intense private development activity the proportion of the population housed in modern buildings will continue to grow. Household income and the level of car ownership are closely related and, with the rise in incomes, a corresponding rise will be demanded in the standard of these buildings and the amount of associated parking space. Already the Housing Authority provides one car space for every 12 flats and competition in the private housing field will probably mean more middle income flats with parking spaces. The provision of more parking facilities in new developments will also be stimulated by the fact that many estates are planned for locations which are difficult to serve adequately by public transport. Also, since comparatively low rents are charged in Government-aided housing, it is possible that cars will be purchased out of savings in housing costs. The fact that car-ownership rates are higher in the older estates than in the new is evidence of this.
54. Government policies on such items as parking, imports, taxation, size restriction and road pricing may all affect car ownership. However, none of these could be directly reflected in the parameters used for forecasting.

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Figure 21 — Car Ownership by Housing Type

55. Car ownership forecasts were developed by equating car ownership to household incomes in each housing type, and then projecting the incomes and housing types to find the future car ownership in each traffic zone. Other estimates based on trends in Hong Kong and in other areas were used to test the overall total obtained by this method. Taking into account all the above, the overall figure of 256,000 car-owning households appears to be a reasonable estimate. The distribution of car ownership in the base and design years is shown in Table 36. Figure 21 illustrates the percentage distribution of car ownership by housing type.
56. About 112,000 car-owning households are expected to be located in the New Territories. Within the present urban area the 1965 total of 37,000 car-owning households is expected to increase to about 144,000. Many of these will be located in new developments where provision for off-street car parking will be required. However, many new car-owning households will be located in existing densely developed areas, thus creating still more problems in the use of street space. It is probable that the high densities are incompatible with car ownership at the expected levels, unless grade-separated public transport systems are built and the roads are rebuilt to segregate pedestrian and vehicular movements.

HOUSEHOLD INCOME, CAR OWNERSHIP AND HOUSE TYPE

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Figure 22 — Households by Income Group and Housing Type

57. The percentage distribution of households by income class and house type is shown in Figure 22. The largest numerical increases between the base year and design year are in high income "Other" households and low income resettlement households. However, as most of the low income squatters are expected to move into resettlement estates, the growth in this category becomes much less significant.

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Figure 23 — Effect of Household Income on Car Ownership

58. Figure 23 shows how car ownership rises with increasing income. This chart is based on the eight income groups included in the original home-interview survey. These data seem to indicate that approximately 65 per cent of the households would own cars if they could afford them and if there were room on the roads and in the available parking spaces.
59. In the design year about 45 per cent of high, 11 per cent of medium and 2 per cent of low income households are expected to own cars. About 222,000 "Other", 19,000 Government-aided and 14,000 resettlement households will be in the car-owning category. It may be felt that the projections for car ownership in resettlement and Government-aided developments are on the high side. However, since it is assumed that there will be no control on the maximum a tenant may earn, many households, especially those with two or more workers, will earn enough to become car-owners. In some cases the locations of housing estates are such, in relation to public transport services, that a car is useful and widens job opportunities.

STUDENTS AND SCHOOL ENROLMENT

60. School travel contributes significantly to the overall number of trips and, like work travel, is highly repetitive. It is, therefore, important to know the residential distribution of students by traffic zones, and also the number of students attending school in each zone. Information on the number of students living in households was provided by a special school survey carried out by the Passenger Transport Survey Unit. School enrolment figures were provided by the Department of Education.
61. Because of the multiple use of school facilities, part-time students and those living outside households, the number of resident students shown in Table 37 is slightly less than the school attendance listed in this table. These figures are used to provide an index of the relative attraction of school trips made by resident students. The distribution of resident students closely follows that of population.

62. It is expected that by 1986 there will be about 1,959,000 students in the Colony. Of this total, about 19 per cent will live on Hong Kong Island, 36 per cent in Kowloon and the remaining 45 per cent will be living in the New Territories. These forecasts were developed from the 1965 ratios of students per household within each traffic subzone for the urban area and from 1961 census data for the New Territories related to the projected age structure of the population by 1986. Full account was taken of planned increases in enrolment at the universities, and it was assumed that 100 per cent of primary-school-age children will attend school. Increases in secondary school attendance and students continuing in school for matriculation were also considered.

SUMMARY OF PLANNING CHARACTERISTICS

63. It is the purpose of the planning studies to define and quantify those activities which relate to the generation and attraction of travel. Of primary importance are the high residential and employment densities and mixed land uses which characterise the urban development. Major influences in shaping the growth of the urban area, and to an increasing extent the New Territories, are the physical land form, reclamation projects, and building and town planning programmes.
64. Planning Projections — The planning projections are estimates of the magnitude and distribution of various facets of urban and rural life affecting the movement of people. They are based on the long term trends which the Colony Outline Planning Team conceived as being a reasonable distribution of population at the time this study was being carried out. Since a large amount of both Government and private development is forecast for the New Territories, certain implications of these projections require careful consideration and periodic review should be undertaken to detect any changing trends. If the aims of population dispersal are to be achieved along with other desirable community goals, such as improved housing standards, better schools, more open space and an improved transport system, a review of town planning legislation is required. It must be noted that under existing legislation, the development plans so far approved or proposed for various parts of the present urban area have population ceilings of such magnitude that the whole of the population increase forecast up to 1986 could be housed in the present urban area. This raises questions as to the role of private investment in the proposed new towns and the speed with which these towns may become viable communities. If private enterprise continues to be attracted to the present urban area and there are no planning controls to direct investment in buildings and land, intolerable strains may be placed on the community with the attendant extra costs involved in trying to ameliorate them.
65. Provision to Accommodate Increased Travel — The increase in car ownership, coupled with high densities and increasing personal travel, means that imaginative urban design will be required to evolve the physical forms necessary to accommodate the increase in travel, whether above ground, on the surface or underground. Suitable provision must be made for pedestrian and vehicle movements not only in business but also in residential areas. The car ownership forecasts for the new towns of Tsuen Wan, Castle Peak and Sha Tin accentuate the need to examine the internal movements within them.